Anarchist's Workshop - QB drafting

[W24olfpack]

Hey guys

We've been talking about stuff lately about drafting so I wanted to put some data out here for group think.
You'll need Mircrosoft Excel or something like open office to work the data but wanted to put it out here for some of the geekier of the population to both ANALYZE and more importantly SHARE what they see.

Hopefully this will drive a little more collaboration for the group think.

What you have is a draft file of QB's (n=990).
90 each from rated all 325's (think Zero) to 625 (think 100) in Each category. So all 325's or 350's etc.
This also include 625 for fumble

Volatility = 50
Intel = 50
Ht 6'4"
Wt 233
All from Clemson (Randomly selected).
I have TCY loaded and licensed and x factor turned off (which really should only impact initial player file).

90 per rating level is a decent sample size and is reproduceable. Wanted to get the data out here and see what folks see. Will be adding graphical analysis later today that I think gives somewhat of a common sense approach to seeing if a QB is gonna be decent or VERY good.

[thenewchuckd]

Just curious if you were able to get actual 100 ratings by licencing TCY. I was never able to. You can check via static bars (use big play for a WR or punishing on a defensive player). Even with TCY licenced and installed, the max bar I could get was 80 for a 625 setting.

[W24olfpack]

Didn't go that far. This is a straight load at this point.

Frankly, don't worry too much about ratings anyway. Ben kicks total ass with 30 rated defensive players and I've done the same in testing.
My goal is to discerne the bars underneath.

[W24olfpack]

Simmed thru 3 training camps
No 100's but a 98, two 97's and about 12 90+

[thenewchuckd]

The key question is: did you observe any 80+ static bars straight out of the draft? Three seasons out and you have a lot of variables in play.

I also want to reiterate what I have been saying for a while now. Volatility is more widespread than people think and training camp is only the tip of the iceberg. I was talking with zbuck and I think we are (almost) in agreement that his CB Zytniak had three different vol bumps over the course of his career. That is right, he is not always a great drafter, sometimes he is just freakin lucky.

I am curious as to the reason for watching the bars for x number of seasons, too. Granted you cannot specify all of the bars in the file but you can specify most of them. Aren't the file specifications a better snap shot? In addition to volatility effects, there is the feeling in some circles that some players do not unmask fully.

[helseld]

All from Clemson = all Intel 0

[W24olfpack]

The key question is: did you observe any 80+ static bars straight out of the draft? Three seasons out and you have a lot of variables in play.

I also want to reiterate what I have been saying for a while now. Volatility is more widespread than people think and training camp is only the tip of the iceberg. I was talking with zbuck and I think we are (almost) in agreement that his CB Zytniak had three different vol bumps over the course of his career. That is right, he is not always a great drafter, sometimes he is just freakin lucky.

I am curious as to the reason for watching the bars for x number of seasons, too. Granted you cannot specify all of the bars in the file but you can specify most of them. Aren't the file specifications a better snap shot? In addition to volatility effects, there is the feeling in some circles that some players do not unmask fully.

In my experience.
Vol is a gift that keeps ON giving. If you have a 99 vol it's likely to see it multiple times.
and I think it manifests itself in levels. YOu may or may not get the FULL whomp.